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In today’s operating environment, managing SME credit risk has become a daily topic of discussion among CEOs, CROs, and CFOs across financial institutions. But what we are confronting is not simply a period of heightened volatility, it is a more fundamental shift in how risk emerges, propagates, and compounds across SME portfolios.

We are seeing multiple stress drivers—macroeconomic shocks, market dislocations, climate events, and geopolitical pressures—interacting in non‑linear, self‑reinforcing ways. These dynamics expose the structural limits of traditional, backward‑looking credit models...